| A successful Texas hold em player is one who | | | | we've seen in the Poker Odds section, you have |
| maximizes his return or minimizes his loss with | | | | about a 35 percent chance of hitting your flush. |
| each decision he makes. Expected value (EV) is | | | | You will not win each time you hit it...perhaps |
| essentially the amount one would expect to win | | | | someone has flopped a set or two pair and will hit |
| or lose if this decision were to be repeated millions | | | | a full house, etc. You may even occasionally win if |
| of times. (rememer your precalculus "limit as n | | | | you spike an Ace. Anyway, it is pretty clear that |
| goes to infinity"??? didn't think so!) | | | | your odds of winning the hand are better than 25 |
| Every poker decision, whether it be to bet, raise, | | | | percent, and with 3 players in the pot ahead of |
| check/call, check/fold, check/raise has an | | | | you, you want to get more money in the pot |
| expectation of success or failure. Those that will | | | | while you have an advantage from an expected |
| lose you money in the long run are said to have | | | | value standpoint. Now, there are other factors |
| negative expected value (-EV). Folding always has | | | | that will enter your head and should be taken into |
| an expected value of zero. You will never gain or | | | | account. If the original bettor reraises you and the |
| lose money by folding. Folding, though it has an EV | | | | other two fold, you've now put 2 dollars in and |
| of zero, may often be your best decision from | | | | gotten the others to put 6 in. Now we may or |
| an EV perspective. | | | | may not be in positive EV territory, depending on |
| Let's look at a few examples. Expected value is | | | | what our opponent has. Also, we must consider |
| not always easily calculable, even in limit texas | | | | the fact that our raise may have bought us a |
| holdem, but every time you play you should try | | | | free card or may have gotten someone with an |
| to analyze your decisionmaking with EV in your | | | | Ace and a better kicker or paired side card to |
| mind. For instance, you're playing 1/2 and in the | | | | fold. As you can see, there are many factors |
| small blind with 84o on a flop of K96 rainbow. The | | | | influencing the expected value of our decisions. |
| small blind checks and only you and a tight player | | | | We may not always be sure we've made the |
| are left. There is three dollars in the pot. Should | | | | correct poker play, but it's extremely important |
| you bet? You are risking one dollar. Betting has a | | | | that our thinking process runs along these lines. |
| positive expectation if you can expect the other | | | | Even preflop you must think along expected value |
| two to fold more than one in four times. If you | | | | lines. You may be holding AJs in the small blind. Six |
| try it four times and it succeeds once, you win a | | | | players, most of them very loose, limp before |
| three dollar pot and lose your one dollar bet the | | | | you. A raise is in order. Think in terms of |
| three other times, making it a 0 EV play. (We're | | | | expected value or pot equity. Your hand figures |
| discounting the chance that you are called and | | | | to win more than one in every seven times |
| catch runner runner or win in some other very | | | | against the starting hands held by the others, so |
| unlikely way) Remember, we analyze each | | | | a raise is in order. Again, evaluate each decision on |
| decision on its own Expected Value merits. If you | | | | its own merits. If you miss the flop in this |
| are called and catch an 8 on the turn, you must | | | | instance, checking and folding may be your best |
| again analyze your decisions based on their | | | | option from an expectation standpoint. Or, it may |
| likelihood of success or failure in the long run. | | | | not...you may have an overcard, gutshot and back |
| Poker, and Texas Holdem in particular, is a game | | | | door flush draw...again, do the math in your head |
| of short term variations, but you must continue | | | | and arrive at the correct decision. |
| to make the correct EV decisions and you will be | | | | Finally, remember this...in general, a bet has a |
| a winner in the long term. | | | | higher expectation than a check/call. You will |
| Another example: You are holding A8 of spades, | | | | sometimes win by forcing people to fold. Now, |
| again playing 1/2. There are 3 limpers ahead of | | | | there are times when this is not correct due to |
| you and one behind you. The flop comes K96 | | | | the threat of a raise (if you're planning on calling), |
| with two spades. The first player bets and the | | | | but always bear it in mind. In Texas Holdem, |
| other two in front of you call...you should raise! As | | | | aggressive poker is winning poker. |